13 vs. 4 Seed Upsets in March Madness: A Historical Analysis

When the NCAA tournament field expanded in 1985, a new era of unpredictability was born. Over the years, No. 13 seeds have defied expectations, toppling No. 4 seeds in dramatic fashion. Yale added to this storied history in 2024 by shocking Auburn with a nail-biting 78-76 victory.

Historical Overview of 13 vs. 4 Seed Upsets

Since 1985, No. 13 seeds have achieved a total of 33 upset victories over No. 4 seeds, resulting in an all-time record of 33-123. This equates to a 21.15% winning percentage, making the 13 vs. 4 matchup one of the most intriguing aspects of March Madness.

Notable 13 vs. 4 Upsets

Here’s a look at some of the most memorable 13 vs. 4 upsets in men’s March Madness history:

1985: Navy stunned LSU 78-55, led by basketball legend David Robinson.
1998: Valparaiso defeated Ole Miss 70-69 with Bryce Drew’s unforgettable buzzer-beater.
2012: Ohio shocked Michigan 65-60.
2021: North Texas upset Purdue 78-69 in overtime.
2024: Yale rallied from a 10-point deficit to edge Auburn 78-76.

Trends and Statistics

Breaking down the numbers provides fascinating insights into these Cinderella stories:

Close Calls: 13 seeds have a 7-2 record in games decided by one point.
Sweet 16 Success: Six teams have advanced past the second round, including Richmond in 1988 and La Salle in 2013.
Multiple Upsets: In five separate tournaments (1987, 2001, 2008, 2018, 2021), multiple No. 13 seeds have emerged victorious in the first round.

Comparing 13 vs. 4 and 14 vs. 3 Matchups

How does the likelihood of a 13-4 upset compare to a 14-3 upset? Historically, No. 14 seeds have a 23-133 record, equating to a 14.74% win percentage. This makes a 13-4 upset roughly 6.41% more likely than a 14-3 upset, reinforcing the reputation of 13 seeds as bracket busters.

Memorable Moments in Recent Years

Some recent upsets continue to captivate fans:

2024: Yale’s comeback win against Auburn.
2021: Ohio’s victory over Virginia and North Texas’s overtime thriller against Purdue.
2019: UC Irvine’s first tournament win, defeating Kansas State 70-64.

Looking Ahead to 2025

As the 2025 NCAA tournament approaches, teams seeded No. 4 will be wary of history repeating itself. With increasing parity in college basketball, the potential for another thrilling 13-4 upset remains high.