14 vs. 3 Seeds March Madness Upsets

March Madness is known for its unpredictability, but few matchups have consistently delivered stunning upsets like the 14-seed vs. 3-seed battles. While higher seeds usually dominate, No. 14 seeds have managed to pull off 23 upsets since the tournament’s expansion in 1985, capturing the imagination of fans and shaking up brackets across the nation.

The Track Record of 14-Seed Upsets

Since 1985, 14 seeds have managed a 23-133 record against 3 seeds, translating to a 14.74% success rate. These surprising victories often serve as reminders that anything is possible in the NCAA tournament.

Memorable 14-over-3 Upsets

Some of the most unforgettable moments in March Madness history include:

1986: Cleveland State stunned Indiana, 83-79
2010: Ohio dismantled Georgetown 97-83 in a high-scoring affair
2015: Georgia State edged Baylor 57-56 in a nail-biting finish
2024: Oakland shocked Kentucky, 80-76, becoming the most recent entry on the list

Trends and Key Insights

Analyzing these matchups reveals some interesting patterns:

At least one 14-seed has won in 20 of the last 39 tournaments.
Only two 14-seeds have ever progressed beyond the second round: Cleveland State (1986) and Chattanooga (1997).
Games between 14 and 3 seeds decided by three points or fewer have resulted in a close 12-9 record favoring 14-seeds.
The largest upset margin in this category is 14 points, tied between Stephen F. Austin’s 2016 victory and Ohio’s 2010 win.

Historical Breakdown of 14-over-3 Victories

Notable Upsets by Year:

1986: Cleveland State def. Indiana, 83-79
1995: Weber State def. Michigan State, 79-72
2013: Harvard def. New Mexico, 68-62
2014: Mercer def. Duke, 78-71
2021: Abilene Christian def. Texas, 53-52

Comparing 14-3 Upsets to Other Tournament Shocks

A 14-over-3 upset is twice as likely as a 15-over-2 upset, with only 11 instances of the latter occurring since 1985. Similarly, 13-seeds have a stronger track record than 14-seeds, with 33 wins in the opening round.

What Does This Mean for Bracket Predictions?

While 3-seeds often prevail, the consistent history of 14-seeds pulling off upsets suggests that cautious bettors and fans alike should be wary of overconfidence. Teams entering the tournament as 3-seeds must remain vigilant, as history has shown that underestimating the underdog can lead to early exits.